International security and international shipping, with emphasis on war in the Middle East
This paper discusses the implications of security crises and war for international shipping, with special attention to wars in the Middle East. In general, the potential economic impact of war will continue to be high, but it seems to decrease in a long-term perspective. This is mainly due to the spread of production and trade, which makes it less likely that regional supply and demand shocks caused by wars in the future will have as strong impact on world markets as wars of the past. More specifically, oil shipping does not seem to become more exposed to market shocks of war in the Middle East, despite the fact that an increasing share of global oil production is expected to take place in this region.
Publisert i 2001
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